janpaulposma.nl/carbon-budget

Thrown together by JP Posma.

Inspired by the carbon budget chart in http://worrydream.com/ClimateChange/
(knob.png and knob-down.png also kindly taken from there since it's MIT licensed as well)

Note: all of this is of course a big simplification. There are significant error bars around these budgets, and earth systems don't respond linearly to emissions as depicted here. Still, this chart shows the general idea and is consistent with the IPCC reports.


Sources:
- Historical data:
  * 1960-2018: https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/19/data.htm
  * 2019-2021: per https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x "no growth" for 2019
  * and -4 to -7% growth in 2020 due to covid -- I used -5%; see https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/news/TemporaryReductionInCO2EmissionsDuringCOVID-19.html
  * and ~4.5% rebound in 2021 as they cite IMF and EIA (+5.8% and +3.5% respectively)
- Budgets:
  * page 10, #1 of "Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets", Rogelj et al., Nature, 2019
  * https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-019-1368-z/MediaObjects/41586_2019_1368_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
  * #1 is "IPCC SR1.5 (2018) SAT"
  * Manually subtracted amounts for 2018-2021
- Initial "business as usual" trajectory:
  * Roughly SSP3-7.0 (no policy). See https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3
- Everything else is cited in-line.


Ideas for future additions:
- Show historical budgets (0.5 and 1 degrees), and when we crossed those thresholds.
- Show different projections along the x/y axes (Paris Agreement, IPCC projections, etc) + clickable for more information.
- Add context to historical emissions, e.g. like https://i.cbc.ca/1.5497376.1584130076!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_1180/graph-co2.jpg
- Make the year that we start bringing down our emissions adjustable.

Any improvements are welcome! Sources are available on Github: https://github.com/janpaul123/carbon-budget


Licensed under the MIT license:

Copyright (c) 2020, JP Posma and contributors

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